I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.
Wayne Gretzky
In 1971, the provincial median age was 20.9 years, 5-3 years younger than the Canadian average. In 2021, the provincial median age was 48.4 years, almost 7 years older than in Canadian average (41.6). When coupled with a declining share of working-age adults (due to an aging population and outward migration), these challenges hamper the opportunity for economic growth in the Province, and in Clarenville.
This past week, Statistics Canada published a new set of demographic data from the 2021 Census. Although not a lot of people get excited over statistical data, we should - at least - be aware of the potential impact these new numbers will have on the future of our Town.
I would like to focus on some of the potential opportunities and the inevitable challenges that these numbers are pointing towards - and of course, how I believe we can set Clarenville up to minimize the challenges and maximize the benefit.
First the good news...
Clarenville's population continues to grow, up 6.6% since the last census in 2016 to a reported 6,704 people. The big takeaway from this is that we are the fastest growing town off the Avalon and that we are the second fastest-growing town in the province - just behind our friends in the Town of Paradise. As we grow our 'gravity' to attract and retain new residents and the businesses that will inevitably follow them will also grow. That bodes well for our future continued success.
Clarenville's growing population is also younger than the provincial average. Clarenville's median age is 45.2 years - significantly younger than NL's median age of 48.4. When combined with the fact that Clarenville has a relatively high percentage of educated and skilled residents, this reflects a solid working-age population that will drive business/economic and community growth.
The single largest jump in age revealed in the 2021 census was in the senior & retired category. Clarenville residents over 65 jumped from just over 17% of the town's population in 2016 (1100 people) to almost 23% in 2021 (1505 people). This growth will most likely continue as the last of the baby boomers (people born up to 1965) move into retirement. We have already seen some of the benefits of more seniors - for the most part, this group is healthy and helpful. They make up an important part of our volunteer community, our churches, and our clubs, and they hold a lot of the pride of place and are amongst our Town's biggest boosters. This category's continued growth also explains the building boom in senior developments in Clarenville. Most importantly, this group makes our town more attractive for other seniors who live in remote areas who are now contemplating the benefits of moving closer to the services and amenities that Clarenville offers.
Looking harder at the data, you will also notice that there are a lot of people living in Clarenville that are in the twilight of their working careers. There are about 800 of us who are in the 55-65 age range. Over the next decade, as we retire from our jobs our respective organizations will be looking to replace us. If one makes the assumption that the replacements will largely come from within the Town, there are about the same number of young people coming into their working years. This is a good sign for these young people, who with the right up-to-date skills, could walk right into these job openings with their newly acquired talents.
.png)
.png)
The Challenges...
Moving forward, our biggest challenge will almost certainly come from shortages in the people with the skills required to do the jobs that need to be done.
Entry-level jobs in the service industry tend to be filled by young people - and although the numbers of young people in Clarenville are holding steady, other statistics indicate that fewer teens are choosing to work while they are in school - this will challenge the many service industry businesses in this town. We can see some companies, like Mcdonald's, trying to stay ahead of this by increasing their wages above the minimum wage and offering more benefits.
The Biggest Challenge will be for our Local Business Community
As the population ages, more of the population will retire, and this will create a vacuum of unfilled jobs. This will provide an awesome opportunity for our youth who, with the right skills, will have many and more job opportunities, but it poses a challenge. The combination of reduced human resource and skill shortages will be especially bad news for local businesses as they continue to struggle with staffing - and find themselves in an increasingly competitive market for employees. Local businesses will have to manage their staff better and work to improve their work processes as well as their benefits packages. This will certainly cost them time and money. How local business responds to this demographic challenge will have a significant impact on the future of our town. The time we all start thinking about the future is now.
Comments
Post a Comment